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Spotting the next OSIM?

Sunday, October 19, 2014

This is freshly taken from TheFinance's wall in FB. I made a few comments and I think this is substantial enough to share with readers who do not follow me on FB:

I have to go out in a while.

Have a good Sunday, everyone.

Related posts:
Managing exposure in investment portfolio.

Celebrity investment blogger who knows it all?

Saturday, October 18, 2014

I have been rather busy with a personal project lately and will continue to be busier than usual in the coming weeks. So, I could be absent from blogging for a day or two (or a few) from time to time.

Of course, I will try to reply to comments, emails and PMs in FB in a timely manner but if I don't, it is because I am too busy to do so. Please pardon my tardy replies in such instances.

This is, perhaps, another reminder that AK is a regular guy who can only try to do what he thinks is right with what limited resources (which includes time, of course) he has.

I know that many readers have come to think of AK as someone a bit more than ordinary. I know because I get comments such as:

AK is a super idol? What would they do in American Idol? X-X-X.

So, is AK extraordinary?

I have never felt anything more than ordinary.

I don't feel very wealthy. I don't feel very smart. I don't feel very wise. There are wealthier, smarter and wiser people by the truckloads. An important difference is that AK has a blog and likes talking to himself a bit too much, I feel.

I shared with a friend who is in the business of investment education recently that I fear that some are beginning to think that I have all the answers. This is a problem that investment educators have. People think they have all the answers because they are regarded as gurus. If they don't have the answers, then, their credibility could be discounted.

Well, you might have heard this saying before:

"Good things not cheap. Cheap things not good."

So, expensive is better. Expensive course means instructor must be guru lor. Then, cheap is not good. Cheap course means instructor is half guru, maybe. What about free? Aiyoh, so simple. Free means instructor is not guru lah! (Where did I put SMOL's instant noodles cooking pot?)

AK is not an investment educator and he is definitely not a guru. ASSI is free for all to read and does not have advertising campaigns or other marketing efforts to "gurufy" AK. (The only ads are the ones you see in my blog which hopefully will help to make me some pocket money for the hundreds of hours I put into blogging. Sorry, I couldn't help myself.)

In fact, I periodically blog about how I am just a regular retail investor.

So, to the many readers who contacted me recently as well as those who are thinking of contacting me on whether it is the right time to buy certain stocks, whether their investments will be safe and whether the market has hit bottom, please forgive me when I mostly say I don't know (for now).

I will, however, say that if you have yet to pick up FA and TA, please do so. There are great books out there. If you don't know where to start, my blog has a list in the right sidebar titled "Food for thought". You might want to start by reading the books listed there. Education is necessary but it doesn't have to be expensive.

Remember, AK's path to financial freedom is not the only path. I am not so dogmatic as to insist that there is only one correct way.

It takes time to discover the path you are best at walking but while we are on the same path, I could share what I know with you but there are many things which I don't. So, I appreciate a hint, a nudge or a wink whenever you think I am walking into a "longkang". On that note, happy walking.

Related posts:
1. Five revelations from a regular retail investor.
2. Revisiting AK's simple strategy with Charlie Munger.

SembCorp Industries: Increasing exposure.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

In a sea of red, I had many choices and I decided to increase my exposure to SembCorp Industries at $4.84 a share. This was one of the supports I identified in a reply to a reader. Read reply: here.

Based on what I feel are undemanding assumptions of a 40c EPS and a 15c DPS, my additional investment has an assumed PE ratio of 12.1x and a dividend yield of 3.1%. I feel that it is probably another fair entry price and, so, I did not bring out the heavy artillery.

With $4.84 failing to hold and the stock closing at $4.82 a share, we could see lower prices if sellers should continue to overwhelm buyers. Then, we could see $4.78 and $4.72 tested next.

The trading volume is very high on a massive down day. I cannot help but wonder if I could have a chance to buy SembCorp Industries at a PE ratio of 10x or lower in the coming weeks or months.

That would be when I bring out the heavy artillery.

Related post:
SembCorp Industries: "A safe price of entry."

Vard Holdings: Bloodbath.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

When a reader asked if I might be nibbling at Vard Holdings, I took one look at the charts and said I would need dentures made of titanium before I dare think about it. See comment: here.

If we look at the weekly chart, we will gain insight into why share price hit 63c before rebounding. That is where we find the 150% Fibo, a relatively strong golden ratio. With share price closing above the 138.2% Fibo, we might see immediate support forming at 67c.

Vard Holdings: Weekly chart.

However, with such a high volume sell down today, there could be a follow through and, in such an instance, the question to ask is whether we might see the 161.8% Fibo tested and that is, approximately, at 59c.

Weekly momentum oscillators, and I am looking at the CMF and the MACD, are not supportive of a reversal. With lower lows looking set to form, unless there is a dramatic reversal with higher volumes on buy ups in the next two sessions, we could see a lower share price in due course. Any near term rebound in share price would probably be selling opportunities for both stale bulls and short sellers.

There are many types of mushrooms in the woods. This mushroom, I am not able to tell with confidence if it is edible or not. So, I am not nibbling.

When in doubt, I stay out. I have a delicate stomach.

Related post:
Vard Holdings: Initiating coverage.

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